Methodology
How the ratings work.
John Popelka’s model scores each game, then averages those scores to rank every FBS team. Here’s how a final score, two yardage totals and the opponent’s record turn into rating points.
Data source · Game results and team statistics come from CollegeFootballData (CFBD). The weights and rankings are John Popelka’s.
The game score
Game score = win points + margin points + offense points + defense points + opponent points + location bonus
Use all six terms when facing an FBS opponent. Against an FCS opponent, the entire game score is 35 for a win or 0 for a loss.
- 1. Win points
- 50 for a win and 0 for a loss.
- 2. Margin points
- 10 + 10 × (points scored − points allowed) ÷ 28, bounded between 0 and 20. A 14-point win earns 15 margin points. A 14-point loss earns 5.
- 3. Offense points
- 5 + (yards gained − opponent’s usual yards allowed) ÷ 30, bounded between 0 and 10.
- 4. Defense points
- 5 + (opponent’s usual yards gained − yards allowed) ÷ 30, bounded between 0 and 10.
- 5. Opponent points
- 10 × (0.50 × adjusted FBS win percentage + 0.30 × schedule strength + 0.20 × conference standing). All three inputs describe the opponent and use a 0–1 scale.
- 6. Location bonus
- 5 for a road win, 2.5 for a neutral-site win and 0 for a home win or any loss.
How yardage baselines and opponent strength are calculated
For an opponent’s usual yards allowed, add its yards allowed in its other verified games to twice the national average yards allowed, then divide by the number of those other games plus two. Use the same calculation with yards gained for its offensive baseline. National averages use verified FBS team performances through that week, including games against FCS teams.
Adjusted FBS win percentage = (FBS wins + 2) ÷ (FBS games + 4). Schedule strength averages the adjusted FBS win percentages of the teams the opponent faced, excluding their games against that opponent. Each matchup counts once. A team with no FBS games receives 0.50 for schedule strength.
Conference standing = (conference size − place) ÷ (conference size − 1). Place is based on conference win percentage, with tied places averaged. Independents and teams that have yet to play a conference game receive 0.50 for this term.
How FCS games affect a season rating
An FCS win earns 35. A team averaging 80 points over four games would average (320 + 35) ÷ 5 = 71 after an FCS win. Team Lookup shows the effect on each team’s actual season average. The FBS-only comparison holds the FBS game scores fixed.
Worked example under the current model
Week 9, 2026 · UCLA 27, Nevada 0
UCLA won at home and outgained Nevada 303–176. Its offense earned fewer than five points because Nevada’s defensive baseline was 328.55 yards allowed. Its defense earned the full ten by holding Nevada well below its 363.56-yard offensive baseline.
| Component | Calculation | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Win | FBS win | 50.00 |
| Margin | 10 + 10 × 27 ÷ 28 | 19.64 |
| Offense | 5 + (303 − 328.55) ÷ 30 | 4.15 |
| Defense | 5 + (363.56 − 176) ÷ 30 = 11.25, capped at 10 | 10.00 |
| Opponent | 10 × (0.50 × 0.4545 + 0.30 × 0.5013 + 0.20 × 0.4444) | 4.67 |
| Location | Home win | 0.00 |
| Game score | 88.46 | |
From game score to published rank
Season rating = sum of eligible game scores ÷ number of eligible games
UCLA earned 88.46 game points for its Week 9 win over Nevada. Through that week, its eight game scores totaled 698.88 points. Dividing the unrounded total by eight gives 87.36, first in the Week 9 rankings. All nine archived editions use the same 50% / 30% / 20% opponent weights.
Each edition recalculates the inputs using results through its cutoff and ranks teams from highest to lowest unrounded rating. A bye can change a team’s rating as earlier opponents play more games. Ties are resolved by direct head-to-head result, FBS win percentage, average opponent points, then alphabetical order.
Where the data comes from
The CollegeFootballData API supplies the FBS team list and conference affiliations (/teams/fbs), weekly opponents, final scores and venues (/games), and team yardage (/games/teams). Conference standings and schedule strength are calculated from verified games.
A final result counts toward the published win–loss record. It enters the rating once both score sources agree and total yardage is available for both teams. Each daily update lists its cutoff and any exclusions. The archive groups updates by game week.
Explore the rankings →Reading a CFP comparison
Popelka’s component totals explain the difference between two Popelka ratings. The CFP committee also considers schedule strength, head-to-head results, common opponents and circumstances such as key injuries. A team-specific explanation of a committee decision requires a statement from the committee. CFP selection criteria